Messin’ With Texas: How 2026 Might Snap Texas Democrats’ Losing Streak

Legend has it that a yellow rose resulted in a victorious Texas Revolution. In turn, the golden petals became synonymous with resilience, hope, and Lone Star pride. For Democrats, however, Texas is not their yellow rose but their white whale – with repeated hopes dashed by underperformance. The party has gone deeper into the wilderness as Republicans have gained across demographic groups. If these current trends hold and Texas continues to grow in population and electoral sway, Democrats won't just fail to influence local Texas policy but will have trouble winning federal power. If Democrats want to turn this white whale into their yellow rose, a change of course may be required.

This year's U.S. Senate election could provide Democrats with an opening. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn, a Bush-era Republican, is in a dead heat for re-nomination against the more conservative, more controversial Attorney General Ken Paxton. Polling shows Cornyn and Paxton are both vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. 

That said, Democrats have given into false hope before. In 2018, former Congressman Beto O’Rourke was projected to be in a competitive matchup with Senator Ted Cruz. Polling indicated the race was a coin flip, but come election day, O’Rourke lost by 3 points. In 2024, former Congressman Colin Allred exhibited a similar promise against Cruz, only to lose by 10 points.

So, can 2026 be different? Possibly, but only if Democrats reap the lessons of the past. O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign raised millions from coastal donors. Yet, his coffers funded a message out of step with Texans. That year, 37% of Texas voters cited border security as their primary concern. O'Rourke largely ignored the border issue, instead campaigning on gun control and reproductive rights. When asked about the border, O’Rourke often pivoted to improving conditions in Central America. Cruz painted O’Rourke as soft on the border, and in turn, Texans viewed him as too soft to represent them.

Six years later, Texas Democrats took another stab at challenging Cruz, with Allred taking the mantle from O’Rourke. That year, Texans again cited border security as their top priority, with the economy and political corruption not far behind. Still, Allred centered his campaign as a personal contrast with Cruz. Allred argued he was bipartisan; Cruz was not. Allred fought against the rioters on January 6th; Cruz encouraged them. Little came from Allred’s campaign on the border, the economy, or corruption; rather, he followed the national message on democracy. In turn, Cruz painted the congressman as an out-of-touch liberal and earned Democrats their second defeat.

This year, Texas Democrats have indicated they are ready to change course. State Representative James Talarico, a former public school teacher turned seminarian, defeated Jasmine Crockett, a U.S. Representative from Dallas, who made a name for herself as an antagonist to President Trump and other prominent conservatives. Talarico announced his campaign standing in the back of a pickup, arguing that political corruption and the influence of wealth are preventing a more productive Washington. Crockett announced her candidacy with a video of herself scored to Trump criticizing her. Campaign advertisements featured a cartoon depiction of the president screaming Crockett’s name while lightning bolts surrounded her. Talarico’s ads highlighted his commitment to battling corruption. Crockett promised her Senate campaign would target Trump. Talarico scarcely mentioned the president. 

Talarico has been intentional about showing up in places traditionally frequented by conservatives. He told Joe Rogan, an influential podcaster, that the divide in American politics is not “left to right, but top to bottom.” Additionally, Talarico has not ignored the border. While he believes Texas should welcome immigrants, he maintains the need for strong border security and criticized the Biden administration's handling of the rise in migration. Crockett largely stuck to liberal cities and liberal media, with hardly a word coming from her on the border, the economy, or corruption. 

Talarico has reasoned that the path to a Democratic Texas lies in persuading moderate Republicans and conservative independents, stretching from White suburbanites to Latinos in the Rio Grande, who swung heavily for Republicans but are dissatisfied with the current trajectory of Texas. Crockett believed that a Democratic Texas won’t arise from persuading moderates but from engaging the Texans who lack faith in politics, as the “definition of swing voters is changing from suburban moderates who’d swing between parties to young, urban, low-propensity voters who have swung between Trump and the couch.” In a general election, Crockett would have focused on the voter who often “doesn’t do politics,” whereas Talarico will focus on winning over the voter who does. 

2026 could produce another Texas Revolution – this time, levied against thirty years of one-party rule in the Cattle Kingdom. However, the yellow rose will not grow out of retread soil. Crockett’s candidacy would have resulted in a refurbished, albeit punchier, version of the O’Rourke and Allred campaigns. With Talarico, Texas Democrats have the chance to try something new. If he sticks with his populist, God-fearing, locally grounded message, Talarico has the chance to redefine Lone Star politics. If he pivots and returns the party to their national brand, it will be yet another repeat of the past. Let’s see how it goes.